Freight Trucking Rates in November 2024

As of November 2024, The freight and trucking industry continues to face dynamic conditions influenced by various economic, regulatory, and capacity-related factors. Below are the latest updates on dry van, flatbed, reefer rates, and overall trucking market conditions, based on the most recent insights.

Truckload Rates Overview

Spot Market Trends:

• Dry Van: In October 2024, spot rates for dry van truckload (TL) freight, net of fuel, averaged $1.63 per mile, a 4¢ month-over-month increase and a 5.8% year-over-year rise. The load-to-truck ratio stood at 4.5 in early November, signaling mild capacity tightening but still below historical peaks.
• Flatbed: Spot rates for flatbed freight rose 1¢ month-over-month to $1.93 per mile, with year-over-year gains of 4.3%. Despite seasonal softness in construction, hurricane recovery efforts and industrial demand provided support.
• Reefer: Reefer spot rates averaged $1.97 per mile in October, up 1¢ month-over-month and 4.8% year-over-year. Seasonal demand from the extended produce cycle and holiday inventory building bolstered reefer trends.

Contract Rates:

• Dry Van: Contract rates increased to $2.02 per mile, up 2¢ from September and 1¢ year-over-year. This marks the first year-over-year increase after a prolonged decline.
• Flatbed: Flatbed contract rates remained steady at $2.57 per mile in October, a 4.5% year-over-year increase.
• Reefer: Reefer contract rates rose by 1¢ month-over-month to $2.32 per mile, though they remain 2.5% below October 2023 levels.

Market Drivers and Trends

Capacity:

• The FMCSA Clearinghouse-II rule, effective November 2024, is expected to tighten driver supply as non-compliant CDLs are downgraded. Approximately 5,000 drivers could be affected initially, adding slight pressure to the capacity balance.

Intermodal Impact:

• Intermodal rates began to rise, averaging $1.53 per mile in October, up 3¢ month-over-month. Capacity challenges and pre-tariff demand contributed to this trend.

Economic Factors:

• Hurricane recovery efforts, along with ongoing construction projects supported by infrastructure investments, have underpinned demand for certain sectors. Private fleets continue to dominate capacity additions, moderating the balance in the for-hire market.

Looking Ahead

The trucking industry is moving toward a more balanced supply-demand dynamic. Regulatory changes and declining private fleet expansion suggest that for-hire market conditions will gradually improve. While spot and contract rates have begun showing incremental gains, economic factors such as tariff-related inventory building and hurricane recovery will play pivotal roles in shaping demand into early 2025.

To see how freight trucking rates change in the future, and for detailed analysis and forecasts, see ACT's freight & transportation forecast.