Dry Van Rates

Updated Dry Van Truckload (TL) Sector Overview – November 2024

The dry van truckload (TL) sector continues to experience shifts driven by market dynamics, including capacity adjustments and economic conditions. Below is an updated overview of both spot and contract dry van rates, reflecting the latest data for October 2024.

Spot Market Rates

Dry van spot rates, net of fuel, increased by 4¢ month-over-month, averaging $1.63 per mile in October 2024. This represents a notable 5.8% rise year-over-year, signaling a gradual recovery in spot market pricing. Seasonal disruptions such as hurricanes and port strikes in October contributed to elevated rates, though these events had limited long-term impact on broader capacity.

The seasonally adjusted (SA) load-to-truck ratio eased slightly to 4.5 in early November, down from 5.0 in October. This reflects ongoing moderation in capacity pressure, though the ratio remains above the year-to-date average of 4.1, hinting at the possibility of incremental tightening.

Contract Market Rates

Contract rates for dry van freight increased 2¢ month-over-month, reaching $2.02 per mile in October 2024. This marks the first year-over-year rise, albeit by just 1¢, following 25 consecutive months of declines. Shippers are beginning to account for higher rates in 2025 budgets as private fleet costs remain significantly higher than contract rates, which is likely to exert upward pressure moving forward.

While the gap between spot and contract rates persists, the disparity between contract rates and private fleet costs is expected to close gradually as the market adjusts to softening equipment orders and moderating capacity expansion.

To see how dry van rates change in the future, and for detailed analysis and forecasts for truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal, see ACT's freight & transportation forecast.