Dry Van Rates

Dry Van Truckload (TL) Sector – April 2025

As of April 2025, the dry van truckload (TL) sector is navigating a freight environment shaped by pre-tariff shipping surges, seasonal demand shifts, and tightening equipment availability. Below is an updated overview reflecting the latest data and outlook from ACT Research's Freight Forecast.​

Spot Market Rates

Dry van spot rates moderated in March after weather and pre-tariff inventory stocking boosted activity earlier in the year. The seasonally adjusted load-to-truck ratio rose to 5.4 in March and exceeded 7 by early April—the highest level since early 2022. This tightening indicates growing pressure on spot capacity, though actual rate momentum remains tempered by lingering overcapacity and soft freight demand.

With seasonality expected to lift volumes further in May and June, the near-term setup supports firmer spot rates. Still, long-term sustainability will depend on how quickly preloaded inventory burns off and how consumers react to higher post-tariff prices.

Contract Market Rates

Dry van contract rates held steady in March, with only minimal movement compared to February. While the wide gap between spot and contract pricing has kept upward pressure on renewals, broader gains remain limited. Fleets continue to manage through margin pressure, policy uncertainty, and an uncertain demand environment.

The contrast between private fleet costs and for-hire contract rates continues to support modest rate increases for carriers able to provide consistent service, particularly as some shippers reallocate freight away from insourced capacity.

Overall, the dry van TL sector reflects a market in transition. Spot activity remains influenced by pre-tariff behavior and tightening capacity, while contract rates are steady but lack broad upward momentum. With regulatory and economic pressures building through the second quarter, stakeholders will need to stay agile as market conditions continue to shift

To see how dry van rates change in the future, and for detailed analysis and forecasts for truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal, see ACT's freight & transportation forecast.