The U.S. trucking industry has moved past the bottoming phase of the truckload cycle seen in early 2023 and is now navigating a slow rebalancing process as of December 2024. Progress continues, but challenges such as high interest rates and inventory overhangs are shaping the pace of recovery.
Looking ahead to 2025, the North American trucking industry faces a multifaceted landscape influenced by economic moderation, regulatory impacts, and market realignments. Key factors such as freight demand, equipment production, and macroeconomic shifts will present a blend of opportunities and hurdles.
How confident should your business be in ACT's forecasting for 2025?
For 2023, ACT's forecasts for the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® were 96.9% accurate on average for the 24-month forecast period.
ACT Research’s 2023 forecasts for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index® were 96.6% accurate on average over the past 24 months, and 98.5% accurate over the past 12 months.
Trucking Industry Outlook – March 2025
Economic Overview
The U.S. economy continues to expand at a moderate pace, although early 2025 data points to rising uncertainty. Consumer spending remains solid, supported in part by pre-tariff buying, as businesses and households seek to avoid potential cost increases. Inflationary pressures remain a concern, with goods and services costs trending higher, particularly in categories like energy and transportation. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates in the near term as it monitors inflation dynamics and employment stability.
Trade policy is emerging as a growing headwind. Tariffs were announced in February targeting Canada, Mexico, and China, although implementation was partially postponed following negotiations. Some tariffs are already in effect, with others expected to phase in later. These developments are increasing cost uncertainty for fleets and manufacturers. At the same time, a stronger U.S. dollar is creating challenges for exporters, weighing on manufacturing demand and industrial activity.
Transportation Sector and Freight Trends
Freight Demand Moderation Freight volumes are holding steady but remain below peak levels. Private fleets are capturing more freight, putting continued pressure on for-hire carriers. Inventory strategies remain conservative, with shippers cautious in restocking amid pricing and policy uncertainty.
Capacity Rebalancing in Progress
Market capacity is gradually adjusting, with tractor availability declining as production eases and used equipment inventory stabilizes. Load-to-truck ratios remain above prior-year levels, but the imbalance between supply and demand is still present, limiting significant rate recovery in the short term.
Spot Rate Volatility
Spot rates started the year strong due to seasonal constraints and weather disruptions but have since moderated. Pre-tariff shipping activity added some temporary support, though lasting improvements will depend on further tightening of market capacity and a rebound in overall freight activity.
Class 8 Trucks
Class 8 production is expected to ease in 2025 as the market works through elevated inventories. The surge in builds late last year has weighed on early-year demand. Vocational truck needs remain steady, driven by infrastructure and construction projects, but tractor demand continues to lag due to soft freight volumes. Regulatory developments tied to EPA 2027 standards are influencing equipment planning, with some fleets preparing for limited pre-buying activity later in the year.
Medium-Duty Vehicles (Classes 5–7)
Production in the medium-duty segment is also projected to decline as retail sales and new order intake remain subdued. High inventory levels continue to dampen demand, although the resolution of some body-builder constraints may support improved delivery timelines. Fleet buyers remain cautious, prioritizing replacement over expansion.
Trailers
Trailer production remains under pressure, with weaker demand for dry vans offset by steadier conditions in refrigerated and specialized equipment. Elevated production at the end of 2024 left the market with more supply than expected, softening the near-term outlook. Some recovery may emerge in the second half of the year, particularly if freight volumes improve.
Regulatory and Market Drivers
Regulatory uncertainty is a persistent concern. While the Clean Truck rule remains in effect, potential revisions under the current administration have added uncertainty to long-term compliance planning. Despite speculation, ACT Research suggests a full repeal of the rule is unlikely given its bipartisan origins and alignment with California standards.
Trade policy remains another critical watchpoint. While initial tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods were delayed, several have already taken effect, and more are under consideration. The evolving trade landscape is contributing to short-term volatility in both demand and equipment pricing, with fleets reassessing cross-border strategies amid shifting cost structures.