The U.S. trucking industry has moved past the bottoming phase of the truckload cycle seen in early 2023 and is now navigating a slow rebalancing process as of December 2024. Progress continues, but challenges such as high interest rates and inventory overhangs are shaping the pace of recovery.
Looking ahead to 2025, the North American trucking industry faces a multifaceted landscape influenced by economic moderation, regulatory impacts, and market realignments. Key factors such as freight demand, equipment production, and macroeconomic shifts will present a blend of opportunities and hurdles.
How confident should your business be in ACT's forecasting for 2025?
For 2023, ACT's forecasts for the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® were 96.9% accurate on average for the 24-month forecast period.
ACT Research’s 2023 forecasts for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index® were 96.6% accurate on average over the past 24 months, and 98.5% accurate over the past 12 months.
Trucking Industry Outlook – January 2025
Economic Overview
The U.S. economy is projected to grow at a moderated pace of 2.1% year-over-year in 2025, reflecting the ongoing impact of high borrowing costs, slower consumer spending, and cautious business investment. Inflationary pressures have eased, allowing the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative monetary stance, but rising Treasury yields continue to challenge rate-sensitive sectors like housing. Consumer spending remains a stabilizing factor, though its growth is expected to decelerate as households adapt to elevated costs and tightened credit conditions.
Transportation Sector and Freight Trends
- Slower Freight Growth: Freight demand is expected to soften further, with the ACT Freight Composite Index pointing to modest growth of around 1.8% year-over-year. Stabilized retail inventory levels and slower replenishment cycles will temper freight movement across most sectors.
- Capacity Rebalancing: Overcapacity continues to burden the for-hire truckload market, particularly as private fleets expand their share of freight volume. Efforts to rebalance capacity are anticipated to persist into late 2025.
- Spot Rate Momentum: Spot rates are forecasted to increase gradually throughout 2025, driven by incremental improvements in inventory normalization and slight demand gains from e-commerce and retail activity by year-end.
Class 8 Trucks
Class 8 production is forecasted to decline in 2025, reflecting tempered fleet expansion plans and high inventory levels. While demand for vocational trucks remains steady due to infrastructure investments and industrial activity, the for-hire tractor market faces headwinds from persistent overcapacity and subdued freight growth. Regulatory pressures, including preparations for EPA 2027 standards, are expected to drive pre-buy activity, supporting modest demand in certain segments.
Medium-Duty Vehicles (Classes 5-7)
Production in the medium-duty market is projected to contract in 2025, as high inventory levels and cautious fleet investment decisions limit growth. Body-builder bottlenecks, which constrained production throughout 2024, are expected to improve only gradually in the latter half of 2025 as supply chains stabilize. Fleets remain hesitant to expand amid economic uncertainties, further dampening production activity.
Trailers
Trailer production is expected to decline further in 2025, with demand constrained by cautious capital expenditure strategies and ongoing overcapacity. While refrigerated trailers and specialized units may exhibit stable replacement demand, broader trailer orders will likely remain weak until market conditions improve. Supply chain stabilization and gradual freight recovery in the second half of the year may provide a slight boost to production.
Regulatory and Market Drivers
The phased implementation of CARB's Clean Truck Regulation in multiple states is expected to catalyze targeted fleet upgrades, particularly for higher-emission vehicles nearing compliance deadlines. Federal and state incentives for zero-emission vehicle adoption, including battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell technology, will gain momentum as charging and refueling infrastructure expands. These regulatory dynamics will influence fleet purchasing strategies, with pre-buy activity and emissions compliance playing central roles in market trends for 2025 and beyond.