The U.S. trucking industry has moved past the bottoming phase of the truckload cycle seen in early 2023 and is now navigating a slow rebalancing process as of December 2024. Progress continues, but challenges such as high interest rates and inventory overhangs are shaping the pace of recovery.
Looking ahead to 2025, the North American trucking industry faces a multifaceted landscape influenced by economic moderation, regulatory impacts, and market realignments. Key factors such as freight demand, equipment production, and macroeconomic shifts will present a blend of opportunities and hurdles.
How confident should your business be in ACT's forecasting for 2025?
For 2023, ACT's forecasts for the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® were 96.9% accurate on average for the 24-month forecast period.
ACT Research’s 2023 forecasts for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index® were 96.6% accurate on average over the past 24 months, and 98.5% accurate over the past 12 months.
Trucking Industry Outlook – 2025
Economic Overview
The U.S. economy is projected to grow at a moderated pace of 2.0% year-over-year in 2025, reflecting high borrowing costs and cautious consumer spending. Despite easing inflation, interest rates will continue to weigh on business investment and housing. Consumer spending, while steady, is slowing, underpinning moderate freight demand as industries adapt to a constrained growth environment.
Transportation Sector and Freight Trends
- Slower Freight Growth: Freight demand is projected to decelerate further as retail inventory adjustments stabilize and replenishment cycles slow.
- Capacity Rebalancing: Overcapacity, particularly in the truckload market, remains a challenge, delaying spot rate recovery until late 2025.
- Spot Rate Momentum: While spot rates are increasing, growth remains subdued. Inventories are normalizing, and demand from retail and e-commerce may spur a modest uptick by year-end.
Class 8 Trucks
Elevated inventories and tempered fleet expansions are likely to drive a decline in Class 8 truck production in 2025. The vocational segment offers some stability, but for-hire markets face ongoing overcapacity. Regulatory changes, particularly emissions compliance, may drive fleet upgrades, but demand growth will remain restrained.
Medium-Duty Vehicles (Classes 5-7)
Production is forecasted to decline significantly in 2025, driven by inventory challenges and cautious fleet investments. Body-builder constraints are expected to persist, with gradual improvement only in the second half of the year as supply chains stabilize.
Trailers
Demand for trailers remains weak, with production expected to contract in 2025. Replacement demand for specific types, such as refrigerated trailers, offers some resilience. Capital expenditure deferrals and overcapacity will likely constrain order activity until market conditions improve later in the year.
Regulatory and Market Drivers
The CARB Clean Truck Regulation rollout in multiple states will drive targeted fleet upgrades, particularly for emissions-heavy vehicles. Federal and state incentives are accelerating the transition toward zero-emission vehicles, supported by developments in battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell technology, as well as expanding charging infrastructure.