Trucking Industry Forecast for 2025

The U.S. trucking industry has moved past the bottoming phase of the truckload cycle seen in early 2023 and is now navigating a slow rebalancing process as of December 2024. Progress continues, but challenges such as high interest rates and inventory overhangs are shaping the pace of recovery.

Looking ahead to 2025, the North American trucking industry faces a multifaceted landscape influenced by economic moderation, regulatory impacts, and market realignments. Key factors such as freight demand, equipment production, and macroeconomic shifts will present a blend of opportunities and hurdles.

Trucking Industry Outlook – April 2025

Economic Overview

The U.S. economy enters Q2 2025 in a state of heightened uncertainty. While consumer spending showed modest growth earlier in the year, momentum has weakened under the weight of tariff-related inflation and elevated borrowing costs. The introduction of sweeping reciprocal tariffs in early April triggered market volatility, prompting a temporary 90-day pause by the administration. However, baseline tariffs and sector-specific duties—including those on autos, steel, and aluminum—remain in effect. These measures are already reshaping production costs and trade flows, particularly for manufacturing, construction, and transportation sectors.

Inflation remains elevated, with core PCE inflation rising again in February. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady in March and is now adopting a more cautious, wait-and-see approach. Forecasts for real GDP in 2025 have been revised sharply downward, with expectations for near-zero growth in Q1 and a modest contraction in Q2. Recession risk has increased notably, and consumer sentiment is slipping as inflation pressures squeeze real incomes. At the same time, high-frequency data points to slowing capital expenditures and a softer labor market outlook—both of which are already beginning to impact freight demand.

Trade policy continues to be a significant headwind. While reciprocal tariffs on Canada and Mexico were partially paused, tariffs on China were raised further, and several key sectors—auto parts, pharmaceuticals, lumber, and semiconductors—face continued threat of additional duties. Tariff uncertainty, combined with policy instability, is undermining forward visibility for fleets and shippers alike.

Transportation Sector and Freight Trends

Freight Demand Moderation

Freight volumes remain subdued, with signs of further slowing as tariff-related uncertainty dampens industrial activity. Load-to-truck ratios rose in early April, driven by tighter capacity, but spot market strength has yet to materially shift demand fundamentals. Private fleets continue to absorb more freight, pressuring for-hire carriers. Shippers are managing lean inventories, avoiding major restocking until pricing volatility and policy direction stabilize.

Capacity Rebalancing in Progress

While capacity remains elevated relative to demand, signs of rebalancing are emerging. Class 8 production has slowed sharply from late 2024 highs, and used equipment markets are showing normalization. However, overall availability remains sufficient, and order activity has softened. The March load-to-truck ratio rose significantly, pointing to near-term tightness that may reverse as pre-tariff demand fades and seasonal trends moderate.

Spot Rate Volatility

Spot rates rose early in the year but have since stabilized, tracking close to seasonal norms. The temporary lift from pre-tariff shipping is expected to taper in Q2, with rate direction hinging on whether capacity tightening can persist against a softer freight backdrop. Longer-term, higher vehicle costs and EPA compliance uncertainty could push spot rates higher—but for now, rate recovery remains patchy.

Class 8 Trucks

Class 8 demand continues to cool after a strong finish to 2024. Preliminary Q1 order activity slowed significantly, as fleets step back amid softer freight volumes, rising equipment costs, and policy uncertainty. The surge in 2024 builds left inventories elevated, muting early-year replacement activity. Vocational truck demand has held up better, supported by construction and infrastructure needs, but prebuying tied to the EPA Clean Truck rule has not materialized as expected due to economic and regulatory volatility.

Medium-Duty Vehicles (Classes 5–7)

The medium-duty segment remains under pressure. Orders weakened further in Q1 2025, falling below replacement levels, with retail sales also trending lower. While body-builder constraints have improved, high inventory levels and cost sensitivity continue to restrain demand. Fleet buyers remain focused on replacement cycles and are delaying expansion amid rising equipment prices and softening delivery activity.

Trailers

Trailer production increased in early 2025, with OEMs working through late-2024 backlogs. However, orders remain weak relative to historical norms, and the traditional peak order season appears to be ending with limited momentum. Demand for dry vans continues to underperform, though refrigerated and specialized equipment have shown more stability. Higher aluminum and steel costs from tariffs are pressuring trailer pricing—particularly in reefer and tank segments. Despite this, replacement-driven demand is expected to support a more stable second-half outlook if freight trends improve.

Regulatory and Market Drivers

Tariff-driven cost inflation is now a defining challenge for the industry. ACT Research estimates per-unit cost increases of roughly $360 for Class 8 trucks and over $570 for trailers due to steel and aluminum duties. These additional costs—alongside broader economic uncertainty—are impacting both new vehicle demand and long-term planning.

The EPA’s 2027 Clean Truck rules remain in place, though uncertainty persists around implementation and possible federal-level revisions. While a full repeal is viewed as unlikely, delays and adjustments are possible. This regulatory cloud is limiting prebuying activity and making it harder for fleets to forecast capital expenditures.

On the labor front, immigration-linked policy changes could shrink the driver pool, though impacts are expected to be limited. Nonetheless, a tighter labor environment and rising compliance costs will continue to influence fleet operations throughout the year.