Preliminary net trailer orders dropped about 3,100 units from December 2024 to January 2025, but at 21,300 units, were higher compared to January 2024, up more than 51% y/y. Seasonal adjustment (SA) at this point in the annual order cycle lowers January’s tally to 19,300 units, but that’s about 10% above December’s seasonally adjusted intake. Final January results will be available later this month. This preliminary market estimate is typically within ±5% of the final order tally.
“Though past the traditional peak, we’re still in a period of ‘strong order’ intake. This month’s pattern of lower than December but still above average demand was expected. It’s also no surprise that the data are higher than the January 2024 intake, given the slowing demand that marked 2023 and led into the subdued market reported throughout most of 2024,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research.
She cautioned, “Notwithstanding the improvement thus far in the 2025 order cycle, ACT’s expectations for weak trailer demand relative to recent performance remain, as continuing weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, low used equipment valuations, relatively full dealer inventories, and high interest rates impede stronger activity in the near term. An order uptick showcasing demand, or the lack thereof, depends not just on the first few months of the new order cycle, but on order volumes through Q1’25 and beyond.”
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers Report Overview
ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report provides a monthly review of the current US trailer market statistics, as well as trailer OEM build plans and market indicators divided by all major trailer types, including backlogs, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and factory shipments. It is accompanied by a database that gives historical information from 1996 to the present, as well as a ready-to-use graph packet, to allow organizations in the trailer production supply chain, and those following the investment value of trailers, trailer OEMs, and suppliers to better understand the market.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis, and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
December net trailer orders, at 24.3k units, were up 17% from November, but about 3% below the level accepted in December 2023, according to this month’s issue of ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report.
“This brings full-year 2024 activity to 163.5k units, competing against a better 2023 order environment (236k) and fuller backlogs,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “That said, December’s net orders of -3% are an improvement when compared to Q4’s -24% or the full-year drop of 31%, meaning the worst of the downturn is clearly in the rearview mirror, and while not ‘good,’ indicated movement toward ‘better.’”
Regarding backlog and build, McNealy added, “For the second time in nearly a year, order intake outpaced build, and by about 11,500 units. As a result, backlogs expanded almost 16% sequentially. With larger orders and lower build, and fewer build days in December, the industry backlog-to-build ratio rose to 5.2 months.”
“In short, 2024 was a challenging year for the US trailer market, and OEMs still see challenges in the offing as the calendar flips to 2025,” McNealy concluded.
- Orders: 24.3k, +17% m/m, -3% y/y
- Backlog: +16% m/m
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