September net trailer orders, at 12,200 units, closed Q3’s net order intake at 27,000 units. This brings ytd net order activity to 101.6k units, according to this month’s issue of ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report.
“Build significantly outpaced orders again in September, but this time by only 4,500 units compared to August’s 11k-unit drop; backlogs contracted 7% sequentially,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “While down m/m, the backlog was dramatically lower (-55%) against 2023’s firmer backdrop.”
McNealy added, “Trailer order activity, while improved from the last several months, remains tepid, despite anecdotal commentary that quoting seems to be increasing.” She concluded, “In the present environment, the challenge is that while quotation activity is happening, order placement is slow and timing remains one of next year’s biggest ‘wildcards.’ In the meantime, the data continue to tell the story of macro-facing industry segments being particularly hard hit, with OEMs traversing a much more competitive landscape than the past several years.”
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers Report Overview
ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report provides a monthly review of the current US trailer market statistics, as well as trailer OEM build plans and market indicators divided by all major trailer types, including backlogs, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and factory shipments. It is accompanied by a database that gives historical information from 1996 to the present, as well as a ready-to-use graph packet, to allow organizations in the trailer production supply chain, and those following the investment value of trailers, trailer OEMs, and suppliers to better understand the market.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis, and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
Preliminary net trailer orders rose about 4,400 units from August to September, but at 12,100 units, were lower compared to last September, down 61% y/y. Seasonal adjustment (SA) at this point in the annual order cycle lowers September’s tally to 10,700 units, but that’s nearly 13% above August’s seasonally adjusted intake. Final September results will be available later this month. This preliminary market estimate is typically within ±5% of the final order tally.
“Since September is the traditional start to the order season, this month’s uptick was expected. It’s also no surprise that the data is significantly below the September 2023 intake, given the soft demand recorded throughout this year,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. She added, “September’s data brings ytd 2024 US trailer net orders to 101,600 units, a 34% contraction when compared to the first nine months of 2023, and puts Q3’24 net orders at just 27,000 units, 51% lower than the same quarter last year.”
She cautioned, “Despite the sequential order improvement, September data continue to bear witness to our expectations of weaker demand against the backdrop of elevated order velocity the past few years, continuing weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, and already-filled dealer inventories. An order uptick showcasing demand, or the lack thereof, depends not just on one month, but on the next few months as OEMs more fully open their 2025 books.”
McNealy added, “Industry anecdotes suggest that the ‘pause button’ is expected to remain pressed through the remainder of 2024, and those on the frontlines are expressing concern about 2025. The timing and size of 2025 order bookings is the wildcard. Additional indicators supporting the lack of optimism include still-elevated cancellations and backlogs lower than we’ve seen in a decade. Despite positive momentum in the US economy, lingering weak carrier profitability suggests little support for trailer orders to bolster 2025 backlogs into the end of 2024.”
- Orders: 12,200 units
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