Preliminary net trailer orders rose about 3,500 units from November to December 2024, but at 24,300 units, were lower compared to December 2023, down 3% y/y. Seasonal adjustment (SA) at this point in the annual order cycle lowers December’s tally to 17,500 units, but that’s about 17% above November’s seasonally adjusted intake. Final December results will be available later this month. This preliminary market estimate is typically within ±5% of the final order tally.
“Though past the traditional peak, we’re still in the early stages of the 2025 order season, so this month’s uptick was expected. It’s also no surprise that the data are below the December 2023 intake, given the softer demand recorded throughout this year,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. She added, “That said, and despite the improved data in the last few months, Q4’24 closed with net orders down about 24% compared to intake recorded in the year-ending quarter of 2023. Additionally, this brings the final 2024 net order tally to 163,500 units, down nearly 31% from full-year 2023.”
She cautioned, “Notwithstanding the order improvement in Q4’24, ACT’s expectations for weak trailer demand relative to recent performance remain, as continuing weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, low used equipment valuations, relatively full dealer inventories, and high interest rates impede stronger activity, especially into early 2025. An order uptick showcasing demand, or the lack thereof, depends not just on the first few months of the new order cycle, but on order volumes through Q1’25 and beyond.”
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers Report Overview
ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report provides a monthly review of the current US trailer market statistics, as well as trailer OEM build plans and market indicators divided by all major trailer types, including backlogs, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and factory shipments. It is accompanied by a database that gives historical information from 1996 to the present, as well as a ready-to-use graph packet, to allow organizations in the trailer production supply chain, and those following the investment value of trailers, trailer OEMs, and suppliers to better understand the market.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis, and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
November net trailer orders, at 20.8k units, were up 23% from October, but 4% below the level accepted in November 2023, according to this month’s issue of ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report.
“November’s trailer orders bring ytd activity to 139.1k units, down 34% from ytd November 2023’s 211.0k bookings, competing against a better 2023 order environment, lingering pent-up demand, and modest supply chain congestion. Order weakness exhibited in 2024 is made worse when viewed relative to 2023’s fuller backlogs,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research.
Regarding backlog, McNealy added, “For the first time in nearly a year, order intake outpaced build, and by about 6,700 units. As a result, backlogs expanded almost 11% sequentially in November.”
“While quotation and order activity have increased seasonally, the challenge is that data continue to tell the story of macro-facing industry segments being particularly hard hit, with OEMs struggling to keep current operations intact, against a much more competitive landscape compared to the past several years as the entire industry competes to book business. Simultaneously, strong Class 8 equipment purchases continue to oversupply the market, thereby dampening for-hire freight rates and limiting capex for new trailers,” McNealy concluded.
- Orders: 20.8k units, +23% m/m, -4% y/y
- Backlog: +11% m/m
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