Preliminary net trailer orders jumped about 3,800 units from February to March, an expansion of 21%. At 22,100 units, order intake was up a whopping 63% compared to March 2024. Seasonal adjustment (SA) at this point in the annual order cycle raises March’s tally to 23,100 units, and that’s about 34% above February’s seasonally adjusted intake. Final March results will be available later this month. This preliminary market estimate is typically within ±5% of the final order tally.
“Given that March marks the cyclical beginning of the weaker order months of the year, this month’s data certainly were a high-side surprise. That said, it is not that much of a surprise this year, amid the unprecedented environment in which we find ourselves presently, and we again caution that one month does not make, or in this case buck, the trend,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research.
She cautioned, “With weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, low used equipment valuations, relatively full inventories, high interest rates, and the ambiguity of policy shifts still in play, ACT’s expectations for subdued build and order intake levels during 2025 remain intact. While speculative, what we may be seeing in March’s data is a pull-forward of orders in advance of possible tariff-related cost increases to come. While good news for this month, pull-forward, if that is the case, means orders placed now will not need to be placed at a later date.”
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers Report Overview
ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report provides a monthly review of the current US trailer market statistics, as well as trailer OEM build plans and market indicators divided by all major trailer types, including backlogs, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and factory shipments. It is accompanied by a database that gives historical information from 1996 to the present, as well as a ready-to-use graph packet, to allow organizations in the trailer production supply chain, and those following the investment value of trailers, trailer OEMs, and suppliers to better understand the market.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis, and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
February net trailer orders, just below 18.2k units, were down 17% from January and 13% below the level accepted in February 2024, according to this month’s issue of ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report.
“Net orders are signaling that the worst of the downturn may be in the rearview mirror,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “However, we caution that the industry’s annual period of seasonally stronger order months is ending, and weaker intake months are expected as we move into the late spring/summer, amid tariff uncertainty that is likely extending the ‘pause’ on ordering decisions.”
“We’re hearing from those on the trailer industry’s frontlines that general economic concerns in the face of tariff ambiguity and its ongoing impact on the freight markets are causing customers to delay ordering. With weak profits and still-soft freight rates, fleet decision makers are reluctant to pull-the-trigger on large capital investments until the dust settles and the operating environment becomes clearer,” McNealy concluded.
- Orders: 18.2k, -17% m/m, -13% y/y
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