November net trailer orders, at 20.8k units, were up 23% from October, but 4% below the level accepted in November 2023, according to this month’s issue of ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report.
“November’s trailer orders bring ytd activity to 139.1k units, down 34% from ytd November 2023’s 211.0k bookings, competing against a better 2023 order environment, lingering pent-up demand, and modest supply chain congestion. Order weakness exhibited in 2024 is made worse when viewed relative to 2023’s fuller backlogs,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research.
Regarding backlog, McNealy added, “For the first time in nearly a year, order intake outpaced build, and by about 6,700 units. As a result, backlogs expanded almost 11% sequentially in November.”
“While quotation and order activity have increased seasonally, the challenge is that data continue to tell the story of macro-facing industry segments being particularly hard hit, with OEMs struggling to keep current operations intact, against a much more competitive landscape compared to the past several years as the entire industry competes to book business. Simultaneously, strong Class 8 equipment purchases continue to oversupply the market, thereby dampening for-hire freight rates and limiting capex for new trailers,” McNealy concluded.
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers Report Overview
ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report provides a monthly review of the current US trailer market statistics, as well as trailer OEM build plans and market indicators divided by all major trailer types, including backlogs, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and factory shipments. It is accompanied by a database that gives historical information from 1996 to the present, as well as a ready-to-use graph packet, to allow organizations in the trailer production supply chain, and those following the investment value of trailers, trailer OEMs, and suppliers to better understand the market.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis, and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
Preliminary net trailer orders rose about 4,000 units from October to November, but at 20,500 units, were lower compared to last November, down 4% y/y. Seasonal adjustment (SA) at this point in the annual order cycle lowers November’s tally to 15,000 units, but that’s about 22% above October’s seasonally adjusted intake. Final November results will be available later this month. This preliminary market estimate is typically within ±5% of the final order tally.
“Since we’re still in the early stages of the traditional start to the order season, this month’s uptick was expected. It’s also no surprise that the data is below the November 2023 intake, given the softer demand recorded throughout this year,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. She added, “That said, and with the caution that one data point does not make a trend, perhaps November data are bearing witness to the anecdotal information about increased quotation activity that we have been hearing the past few months. However, as illustrated in the attached graph, this is typical year-end order behavior, so the stickiness of November’s ‘trend’ will be determined as more data arrive in the coming months.”
She cautioned, “Despite the order improvement, ACT’s expectations for weak trailer demand relative to recent performance remain, as continuing weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, low used equipment valuations, relatively full dealer inventories, and high interest rates impede stronger activity, especially into early 2025. An order uptick showcasing demand, or the lack thereof, depends not just on the first few months of the new order cycle, but at least on order volumes through Q1’25.”
- Orders: 20.8k units, +23% m/m, -4% y/y
- Backlog: +11% m/m
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