In September, the industry reported an all-time best month for heavy vocational truck orders at 20,000 units (NA, NSA). That was followed by 9,500 orders in October. With preliminary NA Class 8 orders at a 37k topline in November, it is not too much of a stretch to assume another 9k-10k vocational orders arrived last month, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“Last month, we boosted our vocational truck outlook for the 2025 and 2026 on solid fundamentals: US industrial policy and infrastructure spending stimulus plans have manufacturing and private construction expenditures running at record levels,” according to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “And much of the ~$2 trillion in stimulus (CHIPS, IRA, IIJA) put in place in 2021 and 2022 continues to be deployed into the economy, providing healthy tailwinds. To date, only around 40% of that money has been deployed.”
He added, “With well supported end markets and technology forcing regs on the horizon, vocational truck buyers not only have a willingness to get a head start on refreshing their fleets, but clearly, the ability as well.”
“While we always caution that one month does not make a trend, orders the past two months suggest queuing for 2026 (EPA’27) has begun. With tractor demand suspect, vocational truck production appears to be well supported into 2025,” Vieth concluded.
NA CV Forecast Report Overview
The NA CV forecast reports on the trucking industry forecast, providing a status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years. The report’s objective is to give OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other interested market participants the information they need to make informed decisions in what is traditionally a deeply cyclical market. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, touching on relevant demand drivers starting with forward-looking activity metrics, orders and backlogs. Information included in this report covers build and retail sales forecasts and current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, North American macroeconomics by country, freight and carrier market performance, used equipment valuation trends, and regulatory environment analysis and impacts.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
With well supported end markets and technology forcing regulations on the horizon, vocational truck buyers not only have a willingness to get a head start on refreshing their fleets, but clearly, the ability as well, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“While we always caution that one month does not make a trend, September’s orders suggest queuing for the limited build slots between now and the beginning of 2027 has begun. With tractor demand suspect, vocational truck production should continue to surge into 2025,” according to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst.
He added, “We have discussed ad nauseum this year the bifurcated Class 8 market. On the flip-side, US and Canadian tractor markets remain awash in capacity due to ongoing tractor retail sales strength in 2024 holding freight rates to only incremental gains cycle-to-date. After a 10-quarter elevator ride down, carrier profitability rebounded modestly in Q3, as the economy continued to generate good freight volumes and capacity continued to slowly exit the market. With the expectation that tractor sales will slow in early 2025, one of the missing pieces of the recovery-to-date, capacity rationalization, will finally fall into place.”
“Even as we more fully recognize the depth of the macro-economic support lifting heavy vocational equipment demand, the tractor market remains under pressure,” Vieth concluded.
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