Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 17.9k units in February, down 35% y/y, as published in ACT Research’s latest State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report.
“Economic uncertainty, fueled by the current administration’s policy/behavior, has largely stalled business planning,” according to Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “Tractors orders of 11.2k units are down 42% y/y, which is likely attributable to private fleets stopping capacity additions after two years of strong demand, coupled with still weak for-hire carrier profitability.”
“Vocational truck orders decreased 19% y/y, totaling 6.2k units. While we began the new year bullish on the vocational market, with EPA’27 on the horizon, and $2 trillion in stimulus money paving the way for infrastructure and construction growth, the political winds haven’t so much shifted as sheered in the opposite direction. Stimulus money is frozen and significant changes to EPA’27 are now in play. These changes, if followed through, are headwinds to vocational demand,” he continued.
Regarding medium duty, Vieth added, “Total Classes 5-7 orders decreased 13% y/y to 16.6k units. MD orders have slowed across the past four months, as current bloated MD truck inventories weigh on new orders.”
State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 Report Overview
ACT’s State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report provides a monthly look at the current production, sales, and general state of the on-road heavy and medium duty commercial vehicle markets in North America. It differentiates market indicators by Class 5, Classes 6-7 chassis and Class 8 trucks and tractors, detailing measures such as backlog, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and retail sales. Additionally, Class 5 and Classes 6-7 are segmented by trucks, buses, RVs, and step van configurations, while Class 8 is segmented by trucks and tractors with and without sleeper cabs. This report includes a six-month industry build plan, backlog timing analysis, historical data from 1996 to the present in spreadsheet format, and a ready-to-use graph package. A first-look at preliminary net orders is also published in conjunction with this report.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
February preliminary North America Class 8 net orders were 18,300 units, down 34% y/y. Complete industry data for February, including final order numbers, will be published by ACT Research in mid-March.
“After the strong end to 2024, the past two months have largely been defined by trade and economic policy uncertainty, as the new administration has thrown a wrench into business planning,” shared Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. He continued, “Whether the slowdown in orders is a result of moderating economic activity or a response to the newfound uncertainty remains an open question. In February, Class 8 orders dropped 34% y/y to 18,300 units. Seasonally adjusted, Class 8 orders fell 28% from January to 16,700 units (198k SAAR), the lowest SA reading in almost two years.”
Regarding medium duty, he added, “MD Classes 5-7 orders continued their slowly deflating trajectory into still historically elevated (if less so) truck and bus backlogs. ACT's preliminary look at February NA Classes 5-7 orders puts the month's volume at 17,100 orders, down 11% y/y.”
Class 8:
Net Orders: 17.9k, -35% y/y
Tractor Orders: 11.2k, -42% y/y
Vocational Truck Orders: 6.2k, -19% y/y
Classes 5-7:
Net Orders: 16.6k, -13% y/y
Click here to learn more information about ACT's State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 Vehicles data.
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