Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled a strong 37,100 units in September, kicking off the beginning of “order season.” While the top line flatters, the underlying numbers point to a bifurcated market with softness in tractors and considerable strength in vocational, as published in ACT Research’s latest State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report.
“Tractor orders were down 32% y/y at 17,000 units, as a weak for-hire market weighs down capital budgets. Vocational orders surged in September to 20,000 units and were up 71% y/y,” according to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “With production capacity constrained in recent years, lingering pent-up demand and string end markets—still-plentiful stimulus money from CHIPS, IRA, IIJA projects, construction in Mexico, and utility investments—provide strong tailwinds in vocational.”
Regarding backlog, Vieth added, “The Class 8 backlog rose 10,600 units m/m in September to 116,034 units. Despite orders outpacing build for only the second time this year, the backlog-to-build ratio remained unchanged at 4.2 months on a nominal basis.”
State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 Report Overview
ACT’s State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report provides a monthly look at the current production, sales, and general state of the on-road heavy and medium duty commercial vehicle markets in North America. It differentiates market indicators by Class 5, Classes 6-7 chassis and Class 8 trucks and tractors, detailing measures such as backlog, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and retail sales. Additionally, Class 5 and Classes 6-7 are segmented by trucks, buses, RVs, and step van configurations, while Class 8 is segmented by trucks and tractors with and without sleeper cabs. This report includes a six-month industry build plan, backlog timing analysis, historical data from 1996 to the present in spreadsheet format, and a ready-to-use graph package. A first-look at preliminary net orders is also published in conjunction with this report.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
September preliminary North America Class 8 net orders were 37,100 units, doubling last month’s intake and up 0.3% y/y.
“Class 8 orders jumped well above trend and seasonally elevated expectations in September,” shared Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He continued, “Historically, September is the first month of stronger orders, as the OEMs open their order books to next year’s orders. As such, for the first time since March, seasonality lowers the monthly order volume. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Class 8 orders jumped 92% from August, to 35,200 units, a 423k SAAR.”
Regarding medium duty, he added, “Medium-duty orders continued at range-bound levels on a very slowly declining trend. Preliminary NA Classes 5-7 orders were mixed, rising nominally m/m, but falling seasonally. In September, MD net orders fell 4,700 units, or 20% y/y, to 19,100 units.”
Class 8:
Net Orders: 37,100 units
Backlog: 116,034 units
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