Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 25.8k units in January, on still-healthy tractor orders and strong vocational demand, as published in ACT Research’s latest State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report.
“Tractor orders totaled 18.4k units, down 11% y/y. It remains to be seen whether the decrease in orders this month will continue or was just a reversion after November and December highs. One month does not make a trend,” according to Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research.
“Vocational truck orders rose 14% y/y, totaling 7.4k units in the seasonally weakest time of year for orders. With EPA’27 on the horizon, well supported end market, longer asset life cycles, and ~$2 trillion in stimulus continuing to be deployed, vocational truck buyers have both ability and willingness to get a head start on refreshing their fleet. Though, it’s worth nothing, the new administration has added greater uncertainty regarding the fate of EPA’27 and the remaining, unspent stimulus monies,” he continued.
Regarding medium duty, Vieth added, “Total Classes 5-7 orders decreased 26% y/y to 14.7k units. Medium duty orders have slowed in the past four months, as bloated inventories weigh on new orders.”
State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 Report Overview
ACT’s State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report provides a monthly look at the current production, sales, and general state of the on-road heavy and medium duty commercial vehicle markets in North America. It differentiates market indicators by Class 5, Classes 6-7 chassis and Class 8 trucks and tractors, detailing measures such as backlog, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and retail sales. Additionally, Class 5 and Classes 6-7 are segmented by trucks, buses, RVs, and step van configurations, while Class 8 is segmented by trucks and tractors with and without sleeper cabs. This report includes a six-month industry build plan, backlog timing analysis, historical data from 1996 to the present in spreadsheet format, and a ready-to-use graph package. A first-look at preliminary net orders is also published in conjunction with this report.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
January preliminary North America Class 8 net orders were 25,800 units, down 30% m/m and 5% y/y. Complete industry data for January, including final order numbers, will be published by ACT Research in mid-February.
“While January orders took a step down from the recent trend, strength continues to be the applicable descriptor of Class 8 order activity. In January, Class 8 orders dropped 5.1% y/y to 25,800 units,” shared Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He continued, “While down narrowly from last January, orders were down 30% against a seasonally stronger December. Seasonally adjusted, Class 8 orders fell 22% from December to 23,300 units, and a 279k SAAR. Over the past six months, orders have been booked at a 332,000-unit SAAR.”
Regarding medium duty, he added, “MD Classes 5-7 orders continue their slowly deflating trajectory into still historically elevated truck and bus backlogs. ACT's preliminary look at January NA Classes 5-7 orders puts the month's volume at 15,100 orders, down 21% y/y and 10% below December's intake.”
Class 8:
Net Orders: 25.8k
Tractor Orders: 18.4k, -11% y/y
Vocational Truck Orders: 7.4k, +14% y/y
Classes 5-7:
Net Orders: 14.7k, -26% y/y
Click here to learn more information about ACT's State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 Vehicles data.
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