Regarding legislation, Andrew Wrobel, Senior Powertrain Analyst at Escelant [Rhein Associates], said, “The California Air Resources Board (CARB) approved a $2.6 billion investment plan to assist transition to zero-emission transportation, with the majority of the incentives and subsidies approved focused on cleaner trucks and buses.”
He added, “Battery electric truck production is expected to triple this year compared to last. However, this growth is still moderate within the broader market, accounting for less than 1% of total truck production.”
When asked about the US economic outlook, Kenny Vieth, President and Senior Analyst at ACT Research, commented, “The US economy grew by 2.9% in Q4’22, surprising many analysts and pushing full-year 2022 growth to 2.1%. In addition to stronger-than-expected Q4 growth, this marked the first quarter since the start of the pandemic that every economic sector contributed positively to the economy’s performance.” He added, “Our view of the US economy remains largely consistent with the perspectives we have offered to readers over the last few months, but with a shift in timing: A recession remains likely, mild in degree and duration. But instead of being centered in 1H’23, our current thinking aligns downturn timing with the game of chicken being played in DC around the debt-ceiling and US credit worthiness.”
The NA on-highway engine forecast, published by ACT Research and Escelant [Rhein Associates], highlights power-source activity for commercial vehicle GVWs 5-8, including five-year forecasts of engines volumes and product trends. The engine forecast ties to the detailed NA CV vehicle forecasts published monthly by ACT in the NA commercial vehicle forecast. This report benefits businesses and manufacturers in the commercial vehicle engine production supply chain, and any company following the investment value of engine OEMs and their suppliers.
Rhein Associates is a leader in North American commercial vehicle and off-highway powertrain competitive landscape intelligence. Rhein Associates is renowned for providing the industry with accurate, thorough and relevant databases, analysis and insight, by analysts that are involved and connected in the industry. Our data covers both on-road commercial vehicle as well as the off-highway, marine, industrial, agricultural and electrification sectors. Rhein Associates publishes The Rhein Report, providing weekly and monthly analysis of the market through news and analysis The powertrain forecast database covers OEM, Engine Model and Specifications from 2010 through 2033 for both on-highway and off-highway applications. More information can be found at http://www.rheinassociates.com/
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
According to the recently released N.A. Commercial Vehicle On-Highway Engine OUTLOOK, published by ACT Research and Rhein Associates, the commercial vehicle (CV) industry continues to invest in new powertrain initiatives and lower carbon emissions from CV fleets despite an unfavorable economic outlook.
When asked about the US economic outlook, Kenny Vieth, President and Senior Analyst at ACT Research, commented, “Since March, the Fed has increased the federal funds rate by 375 basis points (bps). Monetary tightening by the Fed has pushed up borrowing costs for consumers, businesses, and the government to levels not seen in more than two decades.” He added, “Based on commentary from November’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, there are more interest rate increases to come. As the Fed increases the cost of borrowing to banks, banks, in turn, are passing those higher costs to consumers and businesses.”
Regarding legislation, Andrew Wrobel, Senior Powertrain Analyst at Rhein Associates, said, “EPA is developing a new phase of greenhouse gas (GHG) requirements for heavy-duty (HD) engines and trucks that would apply beginning in model year 2030. This Phase 3 proposal would revise the GHG emission limits for HD vehicles while relying on the same basic certification and compliance structure already in place.”
He added, “Phase 3 is expected to include more stringent vehicle emission standards with enabled vehicle and engine emission-reduction technologies, and EPA will consider how zero-emission vehicle technologies play an important role in reducing air pollution from the HD sector.”
Click here to learn more information about ACT's NA on-highway commercial vehicle (CV) engine forecast
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