Booming economic activity results in more freight needing hauled. Freight volume refers to the amount of goods, import and export, moving through the transportation industry. Almost every physical product made or sold in the U.S. economy moves through the commercial vehicle (CV) market.
Why Is Freight Volume Important?
No matter the economic environment, having an understanding of market trends is extremely valuable for companies to be able to respond to challenges and opportunities.
Shippers own or supply the goods (freight) that carriers will transport, and brokers act as the middle man between them; thus, the amount of freight moving among these players will impact how they conduct their business. Businesses benefit from having accurate information related to freight volume so they can better plan for the road ahead.
An effective way to think about supply and demand in the truckload (TL) market is the concept of a pendulum. When demand grows faster than capacity and the supply of drivers or tractors is short, the pendulum swings to the fleets and freight rates rise. When supply growth outpaces demand growth, the pendulum swings to the shipper and freight rates fall. Trying to match long-term businesses with short-term fluctuations in freight demand is cyclical.
How is Freight Volume Measured?
For any company, the scope of internal data can be limiting and unfortunately, the cost of gathering broader market analysis can be prohibitive. As a solution, ACT Research gathers information on a confidential basis from a wide variety of TL carriers, especially the small and mid-size TL carriers that haul a major portion of freight in the North American market. The elements of information include:
- business volume trends,
- market price trends, and
- expectations for vehicle sales and purchases.
The ACT For-Hire Trucking Index surveys carriers to help paint a comprehensive picture of trends in transportation and CV markets.
Additionally, ACT Research partners with Cass Information Systems, Inc., the nation’s largest processor of freight billing, to gain insight on current market trends and the state of the shipping sector. ACT uses the Cass Freight Index®, which measures freight volumes and expenditures, and the Truckload Linehaul Index®, a pricing indicator, to forecast freight demand.
What is ACT saying right now about freight volume?
Updated Freight Volume Overview – September 2025
As of September 2025, freight volumes continue to underperform with little to suggest a sustained rebound heading into Q4. The anticipated mid-year lift never materialized in any meaningful way, and instead, the market has settled into a pattern of stagnation. According to the latest ACT For-Hire Trucking Volume Index, activity remained flat for the seventh consecutive month in August, reinforcing that freight demand remains tepid and unevenly distributed across regions and sectors.
Retail freight remains a primary drag on volume recovery. Discretionary and big-ticket categories continue to contract under the weight of persistent high interest rates, tariff pressures, and shaky consumer confidence. Retailers are prioritizing leaner inventories and flexible fulfillment models, pulling volume away from traditional replenishment cycles. E-commerce-linked freight remains relatively resilient, but it is insufficient to offset broader softness across the sector.
Intermodal freight remains weak, with August volumes falling an additional 1.7% month-over-month (seasonally adjusted), marking the fourth straight monthly decline. While port congestion has eased and rail service has normalized, overall containerized import demand remains muted due to ongoing softness in global trade flows and cautious restocking by importers. Spot intermodal rates remain under pressure, further eroding the incentive for shippers to pivot away from truckload.
On the industrial side, freight linked to manufacturing, construction, and energy continues to struggle. Indicators like industrial production and new orders remained underwhelming in August, while business investment and housing starts saw further softening. Infrastructure-related shipments are offering a modest offset, bolstered by federal funding disbursements under IIJA, but this volume is narrowly concentrated and not enough to lift the broader market.
Looking into Q4 2025, risks remain tilted to the downside. The economy is cooling, and the freight market is unlikely to see a traditional holiday season surge. Carriers are continuing to prioritize cost discipline, asset utilization, and network resilience, with many shifting toward shorter-term contracts and mini-bids to better align with volatile demand patterns. Until there is a clear signal of recovery—either from the consumer or industrial sectors—freight activity will likely remain range-bound and regionally inconsistent.
Freight Volume Forecasting
When forecasting the truckload and less-than-truckload markets, ACT Research utilizes two primary metrics to measure industry volumes (demand):
In short, both measure consumer demand that drives the shipping of goods by a carrier. In other words, measurements of the volume of freight hauled.
Cass Freight Index®- Shipments measures the number of freight shipments hauled within North America by Cass Information Systems. Cass processes more than $44 billion in freight transactions annually and is the ideal source for measuring shipper volumes.
ACT Freight Composite Index is a measure of the estimated total freight hauled by sector as developed by ACT Research.
These two demand metrics provide insights into the expected volumes of freight shipped over the next 6-36 months, providing a supply-demand balance when utilized with ACT's capacity (supply) metrics.
To see how freight volume is likely to change in the future, and for detailed analysis and forecasts for truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal, see ACT's freight & transportation forecast.