Class 8 Truck Market: 2026 Outlook – February 2025
Regulatory Pressures
The EPA’s Clean Truck and GHG-3 regulations will remain a key driver of fleet renewal strategies, with compliance deadlines approaching in 2027-2028. While potential policy shifts under the new administration could adjust certain regulatory requirements, many fleets are still expected to accelerate equipment upgrades to ensure emissions compliance.
Stabilized Market Growth
By 2026, inventory levels are expected to be better aligned with demand, supporting a more balanced Class 8 market. Vocational truck demand remains stable, driven by ongoing infrastructure investments, while the freight-hauling tractor segment may continue to face capacity-related headwinds.
Economic Factors
Infrastructure spending and steady industrial activity will sustain vocational truck demand, but high interest rates and persistent inflation may challenge fleet expansion and financing decisions. Additionally, fuel price volatility remains a key uncertainty for operating costs, influencing fleet replacement cycles.
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