Class 8 Truck Sales Forecast for 2026

Class 8 Truck Market: 2026 Outlook – March 2025

Regulatory Pressures
EPA Clean Truck and GHG-3 rules remain a key influence on fleet planning as compliance deadlines approach in 2027 and 2028. Although the regulatory environment continues to push fleets toward equipment upgrades, the outlook for 2026 has weakened. New tariffs are increasing vehicle costs, with the price of a domestically assembled Class 8 cab and chassis expected to rise due to supply chain shifts and production relocations. These developments are complicating prebuy plans and prompting some fleets to delay investment decisions.

Stabilized Market Growth
The Class 8 market is expected to achieve better alignment between production and demand by 2026, but recent developments suggest a more cautious trajectory. February brought a notable pullback in new orders, and freight market softness is limiting replacement activity. While OEMs and suppliers are boosting production and parts inventories in the near term, the second half of 2025 may see reduced build rates as the effects of early-year prebuy taper off.

Economic Factors
The economic environment continues to pose challenges for fleet expansion. Tariffs, inflation, and elevated borrowing costs are creating headwinds for capital spending. Infrastructure investment and small business sentiment are offering some support, but overall visibility remains clouded by policy uncertainty and freight market instability. Despite these hurdles, steady demand for vocational applications and regulatory compliance needs may help maintain a baseline level of Class 8 demand through the forecast horizon.