2025 will present a mixed landscape for the Class 8 truck market, shaped by several key factors:
1. Steady Demand for Vocational Trucks:
Infrastructure and industrial activity will continue to drive demand for vocational vehicles, though tractor sales may face slower growth due to inventory normalization and weak freight market dynamics early in the year.
2. Production and Backlogs:
Backlogs, which declined in 2024, are expected to continue stabilizing as supply chains fully recover. This will enable manufacturers to manage production efficiently, balancing both demand and inventory levels.
3. Regulatory Shifts:
With the implementation of stricter EPA regulations in 2025, demand is likely to shift towards new, emissions-compliant trucks, which could stimulate sales as fleets upgrade older vehicles to meet the new standards.
4. Capacity Rebalancing:
While carrier profitability may still face pressure, the anticipated capacity rebalancing could lead to healthier spot rates by mid-year, improving conditions for fleet expansion in the second half of 2025.
5. Moderate Growth in Orders:
Early 2025 forecasts suggest that orders will stabilize, particularly in vocational segments, as economic factors such as interest rates ease and supply chain issues are resolved. However, Class 8 tractor demand may remain below peak levels as fleets remain cautious about over-ordering.
6. Economic Tailwinds and Risks:
Continued resilience in consumer spending and industrial investment could support growth in the trucking sector, though risks such as fluctuating fuel prices and geopolitical tensions may temper the outlook.
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ACT's commercial vehicle forecast provides the best information available on how Class 8 truck sales are likely to change in the future.