2025 Class 8 Truck Market – March 2025
Infrastructure and Construction Support
Vocational Class 8 truck demand remains steady, bolstered by infrastructure development and continued investment in public sector projects. Construction activity and municipal contracts are helping maintain order volumes in this segment, even as the broader freight environment remains mixed. In contrast, the tractor market continues to face headwinds from soft freight activity and elevated dealer inventories, which are limiting new truck purchases among for-hire carriers.
Production and Backlogs
Following a strong finish to 2024, backlogs have now stabilized, prompting manufacturers to recalibrate production to better align with actual market demand. Supply chain conditions have improved, supporting timely vehicle deliveries and reducing the risk of production bottlenecks. This adjustment is helping avoid overbuild scenarios seen in previous cycles.
Regulatory Shifts
EPA Clean Truck regulations remain a central consideration in fleet replacement strategies. While the compliance deadlines are still a key motivator, potential policy changes under the new administration are adding uncertainty to long-term planning. Fleets considering prebuy strategies are taking a more cautious approach, waiting for clearer signals on how regulatory enforcement may evolve.
Capacity Rebalancing
Private fleets continue to handle a growing share of freight, pushing for-hire carriers to further adapt. Fleet right-sizing efforts are ongoing, and while excess capacity persists, gradual adjustments are underway. As tractor availability tightens, conditions could improve for spot rates and market balance later in the year.
Moderate Growth in Orders
Class 8 truck orders are expected to remain steady, particularly in vocational sectors. Although elevated interest rates are restraining fleet growth in some areas, consistent demand linked to infrastructure spending is supporting a stable flow of replacement orders. OEMs are managing expectations carefully as order activity reflects a more disciplined approach to capital investment.
Economic Tailwinds and Risks
Consumer activity and industrial project funding continue to underpin demand for heavy-duty trucks. However, rising fuel prices, inflation pressures, and tariff-related trade disruptions present ongoing risks. Smaller carriers and fleets with limited capital flexibility may experience more difficulty navigating these challenges, especially in an environment with higher financing costs.
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ACT's commercial vehicle forecast provides the best information available on how Class 8 truck sales are likely to change in the future.