Class 8 Truck Market: October 2024 Update
ACT Research forecasts a slight increase in Class 8 retail sales for 2024, building on 2023’s final tally of 315,952 units, slightly higher than 2023’s 309,615 units.
In September, economic and industry factors stayed on track with expectations, prompting only a modest revision to vehicle forecasts. Notably, Class 8 truck orders jumped in September, reflecting stronger-than-expected demand in vocational segments. However, ongoing high inventory levels are expected to cap any significant production gains heading into 2025.
Class 8 Truck Orders
Class 8 Truck Orders in October 2024Truck Order Backlog
The Class 8 backlog decreased to 148,500 units in September, down from August as strong build rates continued, while seasonal order activity remained low.
Truck Order Cancellations
Cancellations rose to 2.7% of the backlog in September, slightly above the long-term average, reflecting some fleet hesitancy amid high inventory levels.
Trailer Shipments
Factory shipments reached 27,500 units in September, slightly below August’s 28k but still reflecting solid activity.
Factors Affecting Sales
Carrier profitability remains constrained, and production constraints continue to limit upside potential for the remainder of 2024.
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ACT's commercial vehicle forecast provides the best information available on how Class 8 truck sales are likely to change in the future.