Class 8 Truck Sales Forecast for 2024

2024 Class 8 Truck Market Year in Review

The Class 8 market closed 2024 with a notable performance, reflecting both resilience and strategic adjustments within the industry. Retail sales for the year reached approximately 330,168 units, showcasing a 4.5% year-over-year increase compared to 2023’s 315,952 units. This growth was largely driven by robust demand for vocational trucks, buoyed by stable industrial activity and government-backed infrastructure investments. However, elevated inventory levels tempered production momentum, particularly in the for-hire tractor segment, where supply outpaced immediate demand. Looking forward, while inventory constraints are expected to exert pressure into 2025, the market remains poised for incremental growth as private fleets prepare for regulatory shifts, including EPA 2027 compliance​​.

ACT Research's latest analysis indicates a modest upward revision in the Class 8 retail sales forecast for 2024, following a robust September order surge. The year-end total is projected to reach approximately 324,700 units, an increase from 2023’s total of 315,952 units, driven primarily by an uptick in vocational truck demand. Despite this upward trajectory, elevated inventory levels across Class 8 trucks are likely to temper production increases through 2025, especially in the for-hire tractor segment where inventory buildup remains a key constraint.