Class 8 Truck Sales Forecast for 2024

Class 8 Truck Market – November 2024

ACT Research's latest analysis indicates a modest upward revision in the Class 8 retail sales forecast for 2024, following a robust September order surge. The year-end total is projected to reach approximately 324,700 units, an increase from 2023’s total of 315,952 units, driven primarily by an uptick in vocational truck demand. Despite this upward trajectory, elevated inventory levels across Class 8 trucks are likely to temper production increases through 2025, especially in the for-hire tractor segment where inventory buildup remains a key constraint.

Truck Order Backlog: The Class 8 truck backlog decreased further in October, continuing a downward trend as production rates remain strong while seasonal order activity tapers off. Despite robust order levels earlier in the year, the backlog contraction reflects manufacturers’ ability to keep pace with demand, especially in the vocational segments.

Truck Order Cancellations: Cancellations ticked up in October indicating ongoing fleet hesitancy amid persistently high inventory levels. This uptick suggests that some fleets are reassessing order commitments in light of inventory and financial pressures.

Trailer Shipments: Trailer shipments in October reached 26,800 units, a slight dip from September, but still indicative of stable factory activity. While demand remains steady, trailer orders continue to face headwinds from competitive pressures and moderate order activity, particularly in dry van segments.

Factors Affecting Sales: Carrier profitability remains under strain as rising operating costs and softer freight rates persist. In addition, production constraints—especially within the trailer market—are expected to limit any significant upside in shipments for the remainder of 2024. High inventory levels, both for new trucks and trailers, continue to be a central factor capping potential gains in production and sales into early 2025.