Now that we're three weeks removed from ACT Research’s Market Vitals Seminar 72, we have a clearer perspective on the key insights shared and how market conditions are unfolding. While the event provided valuable forecasts and strategic guidance, ongoing global and domestic developments are shaping the industry in real time.
Key Takeaways and Updated Insights:
1. Cautious Optimism: Was It Warranted?
At the seminar, panelists expressed cautious optimism for a freight market recovery in the second half of 2025. Three weeks later, market conditions remain challenging, but some early signs of stabilization are emerging.
- Spot rates have ticked up for three consecutive months—typically an early indicator of a market shift.
- The anticipated slowdown in new Class 8 equipment deliveries by March/April could start reducing capacity, which would help drive rates higher.
Quote from Seminar:
"According to OEM panel participants, general boots-on-the-ground sentiment is that there is cautious optimism about 2025 market conditions, particularly as we look toward the second half of 2025."
2. Shifting Demand Toward Used Trucks Continues
The high cost of new trucks was a major talking point at the seminar, and the trend toward used vehicles has only strengthened since.
- Late-model, low-mileage trucks remain in high demand, particularly among smaller fleets looking to control costs.
- Class 8 net orders fell 29% below sales in 2023, signaling an eventual slowdown in fleet expansion.
Quote from Seminar:
"Dealer panelists agreed the current high cost of new trucks is pushing some smaller fleets that would typically pursue new trucks to look at used. Low-mileage, late-model trucks are hot right now."
3. Tariff Uncertainty Remains a Major Wild Card
Discussions at Seminar 72 highlighted growing concerns over potential tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, which could significantly impact truck and trailer pricing, component availability, and overall fleet costs.
- Since the seminar, trade tensions have escalated, with further discussions on tariff increases taking center stage in Washington.
- OEMs and suppliers are closely watching the situation, as any changes could disrupt supply chains and increase operational costs.
Quote from Seminar:
"Certainly tariffs, inflation, interest rates, medium-term uncertainty, short-term pull forwards—this is not the way to conduct business."
4. The Freight Recession: Signs of a Turning Point?
The freight downturn has been longer and deeper than expected, but we may be nearing a turning point.
- Real retail sales returned to growth in November after a year of declines, a positive sign for freight demand.
- Ocean freight disruptions have caused intermodal volumes to surge, helping to stabilize overall freight movement.
Despite these encouraging signs, spot market softness remains an issue. Q2 2025 is still projected as the likely inflection point for rates, but capacity remains abundant for now.
5. Technology and Private Fleets Are Reshaping Freight Markets
One of the most discussed topics at Seminar 72 was how private fleets and technology are reshaping freight dynamics.
- Large shippers continue to insource freight, preventing the for-hire market from tightening as quickly as it otherwise would.
- Digital freight platforms and automation are making fleet operations more efficient, further altering traditional carrier-shipper relationships.
Final Thoughts: What's Next?
While Seminar 72 provided a solid roadmap for navigating the next several months, the key question remains: When will we see real traction in freight rates? The early indicators of a market shift are present, but the supply-demand imbalance will take time to correct.
Looking ahead, here’s what to watch:
- Tariff decisions and their impact on truck costs.
- Q2 spot rate performance—if rates rise steadily, it could confirm the recovery timeline.
- Private fleet behavior—when they return to the for-hire market, capacity will tighten.
Seminar 72 reinforced the industry’s collective focus on navigating a complex freight market, bringing together insights on capacity shifts, economic pressures, and the evolving role of private fleets. The next few months will be critical in determining whether early signs of stabilization turn into sustained recovery or if further adjustments are needed before the market finds equilibrium.
Looking for more insights from the seminar?
In the latest episode of the ACT Research and FleetOwner, Market Pulse, filmed during our Market Vitals Seminar on February 19-20, 2025, ACt's Steve Tam and FleetOwner's Josh Fisher discuss the used truck market amid tariffs and uncertainty.
In the latest episode of the ACT Research and TEN (Transportation Equipment Network) collaboration, filmed during our Market Vitals Seminar on February 19-20, 2025, industry experts delved into pressing topics affecting the transportation sector.
