Commercial Vehicle Decarbonization Forecast & Analysis

There is a growing need for quality information to support businesses as they work to address science-based targets, meet regulatory guidelines, and still turn a profit.

There is an insufficiency of industry-wide understanding, standardization, and aggregation of battery and fuel cell electric commercial vehicle technology resources, unit economic driven total-cost-of-ownership (TCO) models, and adoption rate forecasts across Classes 4-8 vehicles.

• Are you working to quantify the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for decarbonized commercial vehicles?
• Do you need an industry-recognized, independent forecast for investor credibility, fleet payback, and pricing advantages?
• Do you need a comparable and deep dive into the various technology models and their adoption by application?
• What about the information on keeping up to date on infrastructure development impact, timeline, potential updates, and impact on adoption? Not to mention government subsidies and incentives.

Where do you go when you want to be green and still make some green? What you need is a one-stop resource that collects and analyzes all the relevant and necessary information on propulsion system technology, battery, and fuel cell technology, charging, and infrastructure, government regulations, and subsidies, while also taking a deep dive into technology adoption and long-term strategic forecasting by duty cycle across Classes 4-8 vehicles.

We’ve worked with commercial vehicle OEMs, suppliers, new entrant technology suppliers, fleets, dealers, and financial firms for more than 30 years providing award-winning market data, industry analysis, and forecasting services. In addition, we’ve performed several deep-dives on alternative power trains, starting with natural gas in the early 2010s. With a wealth of understanding of the transportation market, we realized that we are the ideal company with the knowledge, skill, and expertise to provide actionable intelligence for better business planning, preparation, and budgeting for the road ahead.

For businesses working to understand the future of electric Classes 4-8 vehicles, ACT Research has developed a groundbreaking report that collects and analyzes propulsion systems evolution of battery and fuel cell electric, government regulations and subsidies, electric and hydrogen supply, and infrastructure as well as a total-cost-of-ownership model of 22 vehicle applications across North America thru 2040.

That’s why ACT Research has developed CHARGING FORWARD, an economic-driven, bottoms-up analysis of the North American battery and fuel cell electric vehicle market, and a one-stop resource combining first-hand industry knowledge of battery and fuel cell commercial electric vehicle market leaders with ACT’s expertise in analysis and forecasting to provide a first-of-its-kind business planning tool. By collaborating with nearly 50 of the leaders in battery and fuel cell technology for Classes 4-8 vehicles, ACT Research has developed an extensive and highly-regarded report analyzing and forecasting adoption rates of 22 vehicle applications across North America thru 2040. Recognized as the leader in commercial vehicle demand forecasting, ACT Research has developed and aggregated information across North America on propulsion systems technology development covering battery and fuel cell electric powertrains, government regulations and subsidies, electric and hydrogen supply and infrastructure, and crafted a total-cost-of-ownership model complete with three scenarios (base, slow, fast adoption) that are regarded by new and legacy OEMs, Tier 1 & 2 Suppliers, investment firms, and fleets as the best in the market.

What is actionable intelligence from an industry expert worth to your business?

Businesses often pay five or six figures for custom project work, benefiting and utilizing our forecasts and insights for planning, preparing, and budgeting for the road ahead. That’s why we’ve developed CHARGING FORWARD: 2023-2040 Decarbonization Forecast & Analysis, to bring together ACT’s industry expertise with first-hand knowledge from more than 50 players in the commercial electric vehicle market for the low cost of $35,000, saving you time and money without sacrificing quality, valuable information.

In July 2023, our team will publish the third edition of charging forward, featuring additional powertrain analysis to our current battery and fuel cell electric to include natural gas, hydrogen, hydrogen internal combustion (H2-ICE), gasoline, propane, and hybrid powertrain alternatives, forecasting the splits and adoption rates of 52 vehicle applications across Classes 4-8 commercial vehicles. The transportation industry is charging forward with decarbonization vehicles. However, there are still unanswered questions about infrastructure, electric capacity and supply, natural gas utilization, H2 internal combustion viability, duty cycles, and payback. That’s why we’ve created this tool to provide guidance for strategic business planning over the next 15 years.

You can get access to the information your business needs to answer the questions your competitors are asking. What does the landscape of Class 4 look like for alternative power with the $40k IRA credit? What are the key considerations when considering investing in charging infrastructure for battery and hydrogen?

To help address these questions and more, we’ve created two options for teams working to better understand, plan for, and manage the demand of decarbonization.

CHARGING FORWARD, the complete report and analysis, is a deep-dive into all things decarbonization, from regulations to subsidies, from technology to fueling infrastructure, from build and sales forecasts to adoption rates of powertrains over a time-horizon. However, the keystone element of this work is the total cost-of-ownership (TCO) model developed by ACT Research. For more than four years and through thousands of customer conversations, this model has been refined and updated to provide a unique view of the marketplace, leading to the use and adoption by companies across the industry. For example, a leading North American truck manufacturer adopted the TCO model as their own because of the depth, detail, and effectiveness in modeling future vehicle demand, and a global Tier 1 supplier utilized the model to build out the new business strategy of their decarbonization market solutions. Across the three editions of CHARGING FORWARD ACT Research has executed since 2018, 20 multi-client participants are repeat contributors, coming back to the well to provide insights and gain an updated TCO model for their businesses. If your business is looking for a third-party resource to guide business decisions, then CHARGING FORWARD is the ideal solution, proven to provide insights and guidance to address the questions your business is asking.

For those who do not need as much detail, we offer CHARGING FORWARD LITE, a modified edition that provides the respective regional decarbonization forecasts, with add-on options to provide only the insights needed for your business. The report sections noted in the graphic below will be a condensed version of the full account. While still providing the valuable insights businesses have come to expect from ACT Research, these Lite add-on sections can be considered the “cliff-notes” edition for businesses that are focused on specific niches, budget conscious, or investigating new areas of interest.

68 participants, 6 years of research, and 3 editions of CHARGING FORWARD.

Is it worth the investment?

The perspective of OEMs, suppliers, new entrants, dealers, and fleets is essential for our continuously developing TCO and forecast models that provide unparalleled insight into the forecast trajectory of adoption and production of decarbonized commercial vehicles. That’s why we are developing the third edition of CHARGING FORWARD in 2023.

Experience Matters

As the leader in forecasting demand for Classes 4-8 vehicles, it’s a natural extension that we look to support the market with a bottom-up TCO model for forecasting the decarbonization of commercial vehicles and commercial autonomous vehicle adoption. This process, like the technology, has evolved as we work with multi-client participants to understand and develop a standard for EV and AV adoption rates by application.

If you need quality, industry insights, and actionable intelligence from an industry expert on the future of commercial vehicle decarbonization across powertrains, then act now. Complete the form below to get started working with CHARGING FORWARD or CHARGING FORWARD LITE. Join us as we work to better understand and anticipate the charge forward.